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Floating Production Systems

assessment of the outlook for FPSOs,
Semis, TLPs, Spars, and FSOs


November 2001

 

The Gulf of Mexico and West Africa Account for
60% of the Floating Production Systems
Planned or Under Study

 

 



Outline

 

I.     CURRENT AND PLANNED FLOATING PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

      1. Overview of Current Inventory, Orders and Planned Projects 1
      2. Inventory of Floating Production Systems 5
      3. Inventory of Floating Storage Systems 18
      4. Production and Storage Systems Installed Over the Past Five Years 19
      5. Details for Floaters Now on Order 22
      6. Floating Production Systems Planned or Being Studied 32

II.    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

      1. Projects in the Planning Stage 41
           Block 14 (Angola) 41
           Block 34 (Angola) 41
           Baobab (Cote d'Ivoire) 42
           Zafiro (Equatorial Guinea) 42
           Doro/Bolia (Nigeria) 42
           Niger Delta (Nigeria) 42
           Erha (Nigeria) 43
           Nnwa (Nigeria) 43
           Enfield (Australia) 43
           Sunrise/Troubadour (Australia) 43
           Sergipe-Alagoas (Brazil) 44
           BM-S-22 (Brazil) 44
           BS-4 (Brazil) 44
           Roncador (Brazil) 44
           Other Brazil E&P Licenses 44
           Goliath (Barents Sea) 45
           Snøhvit (Barents Sea) 45
           Kameleon/Kneler (Norway) 45
           Svale (Norway) 45
           Buzzard (U.K.) 45
           Tiaka (Indonesia) 46
           Ranggas (Indonesia) 46
           Natuna D (Indonesia) 46
           Bao Gan/Bao Vang (Vietnam) 46
           Topaz (Vietnam) 47
           Concho (Gulf of Mexico) 47
           Zia (Gulf of Mexico) 47
           Ultra-Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 47
           Eastern Area Gulf of Mexico 48

     2. Projects in the Final Design or Bidding Stage 49
           Block 17 (Angola) 50
           Block 15 Kizomba B (Angola) 50
           Block 18 (Angola) 50
           Noah (Nigeria) 51
           Yoho (Nigeria) 51
           Akpo (Nigeria) 51
           Agbami (Nigeria) 52
           Moho/Bilondo (Congo) 52
           Audacious (Australia) 53
           Albacora Leste (Brazil) 53
           White Rose (Canada) 53
           Kristin (Norway) 54
           Haldia (India) 54
           Sidayu/Ujung Pangkah (Indonesia) 54
           Jabung (Indonesia) 54
           Banyu Urip (Indonesia) 54
           Cendor (Malaysia) 55
           Sutu Den (Vietnam) 55
           Hawkes (Gulf of Mexico) 55
           Marco Polo (Gulf of Mexico) 56
           Llano (Gulf of Mexico) 56
           Gunnison (Gulf of Mexico) 56
           Front Runner (Gulf of Mexico) 57

     3. New Orders and Relocations 57
           Kizomba A FPSO vessel and DCU (Angola) 57
           Okono/Okpoho EPS and FPSO vessels (Nigeria) 58
           3rd Bergesen FPSO vessel (West Africa) 58
           2nd Generic FPSO vessel (West Africa) 59
           Aquitaine FPSO vessel (Libya) 59
           Panyu FPSO vessel (China) 59
           Matterhorn TLP (Gulf of Mexico) 60
           Bunga Kekwa FSO vessel (Malaysia/Vietnam) 60
           Bongkot FSO vessel (Thailand) 60
           Etame FPSO vessel (Gabon) 60
           Crazy Horse production semi (Gulf of Mexico) 61
           West Seno FPSO vessel (Indonesia) 61
           Belanak FPSO vessel (Indonesia) 61

     4. Systems Recently Completed 62
           Qinhuangdao FPSO vessel (China) 62
           Glitne FPSO vessel (Norway) 62
           Snorre B production semi (Norway) 62
           Terra Nova FPSO vessel (Canada) 63
           Prince Mini-TLP (Gulf of Mexico) 63
           Typhoon Mini-TLP (Gulf of Mexico) 63
           Brutus TLP (Gulf of Mexico) 63

     5. Existing Systems 64
           Malongo FPSO vessel (Angola) 64
           Obe FPSO vessel (Nigeria) 64
           Roncador EPS FPSO vessel (Brazil) 64
           Suizhong FPSO vessel (China) 65
           Huizhou FPSO vessel (China) 65
           Hutton TLP (U.K.) 65
           Schiehallion FPSO vessel (U.K.) 65
           Åsgard production units (North Sea) 66
           Foinaven FPSO vessel (North Sea) 66

III. UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS

     1. Deterioriating World Economy Lowers Near Term Outlook for Oil Demand 67
     2. Opec Producers Exceeding Output Quotas And Russia Adding To Supply 69
     3. Crude Spot Prices Have Fallen 23 Percent Since Mid-September 70
     4. Despite the Drop, Most Analysts See the Long Term Price of Crude Above $20 70
     5. The Futures Market Also Sees The Long Term Price Of Crude Above $20 71
     6. The Market Sees Natural Gas Futures Prices in the $3.50 to $4.00 Range 72
     7. No Noticeable Weakening Of Demand For Floating Production Systems 74
     8. Long Term Fundamentals Continue to be Strong 75


IV. FORECAST OF FLOATER REQUIREMENTS

     1. Summary of the Available Five Year Market 77
     2. FPSO Vessels Will Account for More Than 60 Percent of Future Orders 78
     3. Production Semi Orders Will Be Only A Handful, But Will Be Big Ticket Units 81
     4. Big Increase In Mini And Wellhead TLPS Anticipated 84
     5. Recent High Ordering Rate of Spars Expected to Continue 86
     6. How Does This Forecast Compare With Last Year's? 89


V. TECHNOLOGY AND COMPANIES

     1. Financing Of Floating Production Systems 93
     2. DTU/FPSO Production Solution For Ultra-Deepwater Gulf Of Mexico Fields 93
     3. Commercializing Offshore Stranded Gas Stirs Interest 94
     4. Bluewater Buys Navion's FPSO Vessels 95
     5. IHC Caland Buys Atlantia Offshore 96

List of Exhibits


 1. Trend in Order Backlog for Floating Production Systems  2
 2. Number and Location of Firms Fabricating Floater Hulls or Topsides  3
 3. Projects in the Planning, Bidding or Final Design Stage as of November 2001  4
 4. Overview of Floating Production Systems and Storage Vessels in Operation or Available as of November 2001  5
 5. Inventory of Floating Production Systems as of November 2001  6
 6. Inventory of Floating Storage Systems as of November 2001  18
 7. Floating Production and Storage Systems Installed Over the Past Five Years  19
 8. Floating Production and Storage Systems on Order as of November 2001  22
 9. Overview of Who's Building What?  31
10. Location and Water Depths of Floating Production Systems Planned or Under Study as of November 2001  32
11. List of Floating Production Systems Being Bid, Designed, Planned or Studied as of November 2001  33
12. Ultra-Deepwater Fields Now Being Developed in the Gulf of Mexico  47
13. Ultra-Deepwater Prospects in the Gulf of Mexico and the Likely Production Solution  49
14. Views on Outlook for the World Economy  68
15. OPEC Production vs. Agreed Quota Through September  69
16. Trend in WTI Crude Price Since January  70
17. Actual and Futures Price of Crude  72
18. Henry Hub Natural Gas Price and Nymex Futures  73
19. Trend in New Orders for Floating Production Systems  74
20. Long Term Actual and Projected Growth in World GDP  75
21. Declining Unit Cost of Floating Production  76
22. Summary Forecast of Orders for Floating Production Units Over the Next Five Years  77
23. What Type of Floater Will Be Used?  78
24. Actual and Forecast Installations of FPSO Vessels Through Mid-2008  79
25. Projected Orders for FPSO Vessels Over the Next Five Years  80
26. Projected Capex for FPSO Vessels Over the Next Five Years  81
27. Actual and Forecast Installations of Production Semis Through Mid-2008  82
28. Projected Orders for Production Semis Over the Next Five Years  83
29. Projected Capex for Production Semis Over the Next Five Years  83
30. Actual and Forecast Installations of TLPs Through Mid-2008  85
31. Projected Orders for TLPs Over the Next Five Years  85
32. Projected Capex for TLPs Over the Next Five Years  86
33. Actual and Forecast Installations of Production Spars Through Mid-2008  87
34. Projected Orders for Production Spars Over the Next Five Years  88
35. Projected Capex for Production Spars Over the Next Five Years  88
36. Comparison of This Year's vs. Last Year's Five Year Forecast of Floating Production System Orders  89
37. Texaco's Concept for Split Production Between a DTU and FPSO Vessel  94







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