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Floating Production Systems

assessment of the outlook for FPSO vessels,
production semis, TLPs and spars

March 2004

 

Growth in Production Orders

 

 



Outline

I.     CURRENT AND PLANNED FLOATING PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

 

1. Overview of the Floater Business Sector         1

Recent Orders and Deliveries     1

What's Now Being Built          1

Trend in Order Backlog           2

Current Fabrication and Conversion Activity          3

Floaters Planned or Under Study     3


2. Details for Floaters in Operation, On Order or Planned        5

Inventory of Floating Production Systems      6

Inventory of Floating Storage Systems      22

Production and Storage Systems Installed Since September 1996     23

Floaters Now on Order      27

Floating Production Projects Planned or Under Study      41

  II.    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

 

1. Projects in the Planning Stage       53

Block 31 (Angola)     53

Kuda Tasi/Jahal (Australia)     53

Gjoa (Norway)     53

Crawford (U.K.)     54

Hornet (Gulf of Mexico)     54

Cascade (Gulf of Mexico)      54

Chinook (Gulf of Mexico)      54

Deimos (Gulf of Mexico)     55

Neptune (Gulf of Mexico)      55

St. Malo (Gulf of Mexico)      55

Myrtle Beach (Gulf of Mexico)      55

Blind Faith (Gulf of Mexico)      55

Krishna-Godavari (India)      56

Gehem (Indonesia)      56

Gumusut (Malaysia)      56

 

2. Projects in the Final Design or Bidding Stage        56

Akpo (Nigeria)      56

Block 15 (Angola)      57

Negage (Angola)      57

Usan/Ukot (Nigeria)      57

OPL 98 (Nigeria)      57

Agbami (Nigeria)      58

Chinguetti (Mauritania)     58

Stybarrow (Australia)      58

Montara (Australia)      59

Maari (New Zealand)      59

Tui (New Zealand)      59

BES-100 (Brazil)      59

Marlim Sul P-51 (Brazil)      60

Marlim Leste P-53 (Brazil)      60

Roncador P-54 (Brazil)      60

Merganser/Vortex (Gulf of Mexico)      60

Tahiti (Gulf of Mexico)      61

Volve (Norway)      61

Alvheim FPSO vessel (Norway)      62

Bombay Basin (India)      62

Jasmine (Thailand)      62

Kikeh (Malaysia)      62

 

3.  New Orders and Relocations       62

Plutonio FPSO vessel (Angola)      63

Constitution production spar(Gulf of Mexico)      63

Okwori FPSO vessel (Nigeria)     63

Xijiang FPSO vessel (China)      64

Bourbon Opale well test vessel (Gulf of Mexico)      64

Panna Mukta FSO vessel (India)      64


4.  Systems On Order       65

Enfield FPSO vessel (Australia)      65

Mutineer/Exeter FPSO vessel (Australia)      65

Thunder Horse production semi (Australia)     65

Mad Dog production spar (Gulf of Mexico)      65

Holstein production spar (Gulf of Mexico)      65

 

5. Systems Recently Completed       66

Kizomba A wellhead TLP (Angola)      66

Xikomba FPSO vessel (Angola)      66

Lukut FPSO vessel (Malaysia)      66

Marco Polo TLP (Gulf of Mexico)      66

PM-3 FSO vessel (Malaysia)      67

 

6. Existing Systems    67

Woollybutt FPSO vessel (Australia)      67

Varg FPSO vessel (Norway)      67

Glitne FPSO vessel (Norway)      67

Isis FPSO vessel (Tunisia)      67

Qinhuangdao FPSO vessel (China)      67

Dai Hung production semi (Vietnam)      68

Su Tu Den FPSO vessel (Vietnam)      68

 

 

III.     UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS

 

1.          Global Oil Demand Has Been Very Strong      69

2.          OPEC Producers Continue to Manage Output      69

3.          Oil Prices Have Soared to the Upper $30s     71

4.          Natural Gas Prices Have Also Been Very Strong    72

5.          Deepwater Offshore E&P Spending in 2004 to Increase      72

6.          $2.2 Trillion to be Invested in Oil E&P through 2030 --- with Offshore Taking a Big Share      73

7.          Rig Activity Not Yet Responded to Higher E&P Spending --- But There are Signs of Improvement      73

8.          Recent Orders for Floating Production Systems Continue to be Below the 7 Year Average      75

 

IV.    FORECAST OF FLOATER REQUIREMENTS

 

1.          Summary of the Available Five Year Market      77

2.          FPSO Vessels     78

3.          Production Semis      83

4.          Tension Leg Platform Orders      87

5.          Production Spars      90

6.          All Production Floaters      93

7.          How Does This Forecast Compare With Last Year's      94


V.     COMPANIES AND TECHNOLOGY

 

1.          Redeployment of FPSOs      97

2.          Lease vs. Ownership of Production Floaters      99

3.          New vs. Converted Hulls for FPSOs     100

4.          Floating Storage and Regasification Units    102


List of Exhibits

1.          Deliveries and Orders Since the October Report  1

2.           Current Orders for Production and Storage Systems    2

3.           Trend in Order Backlog for Floating Production Systems   2

4.           Number and Location of Facilities Fabricating and Converting Floating Production Units  3

5.           Projects in the Planning, Bidding or Final Design Stage as of March 2004  4

6.           Overview of Floating Production Systems and Storage Vessels in Operation as of March 2004   5

7.           Inventory of Floating Production Systems as of March 2004   6

8.           Inventory of Floating Storage Systems as of March 2004   22

9.           Floating Production and Storage Systems Installed Since September 1996   23

10.       Floating Production and Storage Systems on Order as of March 2004   27

11.       Overview of Who's Building What?   40

12.       Location and Water Depths of Floating Production Systems Planned or Under Study as of March 2004   41

13.       List of Floating Production Systems Being Bid, Designed, Planned or Studied as of March 2004   42

14.      Trend in Global Oil Demand   69

15.      OPEC Agreed Quotas vs. Production Since November 2003   70

16.       Actual and Futures Price of Crude    71

17.       Henry Hub Natural Gas Price and Nymex Futures   72

18.       Trend in Number of Active Rigs Operating Offshore the U.S. and Other Locations   74

19.       Trend in Orders for Floating Production Systems   75

20.       Forecast of Orders for Floating Production Units Over the Next Five Years   77

21.       Orders for FPSO Vessels Over the Past Five Years  79

22.        Forecast of FPSO Orders Over the Next Five Years    80

23.        Composition of FPSO Orders Over the Next Five Years   80

24.        Projected Capex for FPSO Vessels Over the Next Five Years  82

25.        Forecast Growth in FPSO Inventory Through 2010  83

26.        Orders for Production Semis Over the Past Five Years   84

27.        Forecast of Production Semi Orders Over the Next Five Years   85

28.       Projected Capex for Production Semis Over the Next Five Years   86

29.        Forecast Growth in Production Semi Inventory Through 2010   86

30.      Orders for TLPs Over the Past Five Years   87

31.       Forecast of TLP Orders Over the Next Five Years   88

32.       Composition of TLP Orders Over the Next Five Years   89

33.      Projected Capex for TLPs Over the Next Five Years   89

34.       Forecast Growth in TLP Inventory Through 2010   90

35.       Orders for Production Spars Over the Past Five Years   91

36.       Forecast of Spar Orders Over the Next Five Years    91

37.       Composition of Orders for Production Spars Over the Next Five Years   92

38.      Projected Capex for Production Spars Over the Next Five Years   92

39.       Forecast Growth in Production Spar Inventory Through 2010   93

40.       Forecast Growth in Production Floaters   93

41.       Comparison of This Year's and Last Year's Five Year Forecast of Orders  94

42.       Historical Redeployments of FPSOs    97

43.       Issues Associated with Reuse of FPSOs   98

44.       Petrojarl 1 Redeployments Since 1986  99

45.       Leasing vs. Ownership of Production Floaters  100

46.       Use of New vs. Converted Hulls for FPSOs   101

47.       FPSO Hulls Delivered and On Order in China   102

 

 

 

International Maritime Associates, Inc.
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Tel: 1-202-333-8501
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