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Floating Production Systems

assessment of the outlook for FPSO vessels,
production semis, TLPs and spars

March 2007

 

Backlog of Production Floater Orders
Up 75% Over Past Two Years
(no. units on order)

 

 


Outline

I.     CURRENT AND PLANNED FLOATING PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

 

1. Overview of the Floater Business Sector        

Recent Orders, Deliveries and Relocations    

What's Now Being Built         

Trend in Order Backlog          

Current Fabrication and Conversion Activity         

Floaters Planned or Under Study    


2. Details for Floaters in Operation, On Order or Planned       

Inventory of Floating Production Systems     

Inventory of Floating Storage/Offloading Systems     

Production and Storage Systems Installed Over the Past Ten Years    

Floaters Now on Order     

Floating Production Projects Planned or Under Study     

  II.    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

 

1. Projects in the Planning Stage       

Block 32 (Angola)    

Clov (Angola)     

Block 14 (Angola)    

Etan (Nigeria)    

Egina (Nigeria)    

Bobo (Nigeria)     

Bonga Southwest (Nigeria)     

Obo (Nigeria-San Tome JDZ)    

Browse (Australia)     

GTM Floater (Australia)     

Tupi (Brazil)     

Caxareu (Brazil)     

Kaskida (Gulf of Mexico)     

Tubular Bells (Gulf of Mexico)     

Knotty Head (Gulf of Mexico)     

Perdido South (Gulf of Mexico)     

Stones (Gulf of Mexico)     

Laggan (U.K.)     

Acorn/Beechnut (U.K.)     

Milburn/Selkirk (U.K.)     

Golden Eagle (U.K.)     

Kraken (U.K.)     

Nucula (Norway)     

Port Qasim (Pakistan)     

Hai Su Trang (Vietnam)     

Bumerah (Indonesia)  

Dua/Blackbird (Vietnam)    
 

2. Projects in the Final Design or Bidding Stage       

Block 31 (Angola)    

Usan (Nigeria)     

Pazflor (Angola)    

Okoro (Nigeria)    

Kole (Cameroon)    

BMG (Australia)     

Crux (Australia)     

Ichthys (Australia)    

Jubarte P 57 (Brazil)    

Roncador P 55 (Brazil)    

BS-4 NE (Brazil)    

Opportunity Gas 2 (Brazil)    

Papa Terra (Brazil)    

Deep Panuke (Canada)    

Cascade/Chinook (Gulf of Mexico)    

Gotcha (Gulf of Mexico)    

Snohvit Oil (Norway)    

Wei (China)    

South Pars Oil Layer (Iran)    

Soroosh/Norwuz (Iran)  

Bunga Orkid Pakma (Malaysia)

Malampaya Oil Rim (Philippines)  

Ruby (Vietnam)

Song Doc (Vietnam)

 

3. New Orders       

Olowi FPSO vessel (Gabon)    

Opportunity Oil FPSO vessel (Brazil)     

Opportunity Gas 1 FPSO vessel (Brazil)    

Peregrino FPSO vessel (Brazil)    

Skarv FPSO vessel (Norway)    

Yurri Korchagin FSO vessel (Russia)     

AGR/Helix Spec FPSO vessel (Southeast Asia)     

Gumusut production semi (Malaysia)     

Galoc FPSO vessel (Philippines)     

Su Tu Vang FSO vessel (Vietnam)  

Nortechs Spec 2 FPSO vessel  

PetroProd Spec FPSO vessel 

Sevan 300 speculative FPSO vessel

Sevan 650 speculative FPSO vessel

Oyong production barge (Indonesia)

Dragon FSO vessel (Vietnam)

Yme MOPU/storage unit (Norway)

    

5. Systems On Order       

Montara FPSO vessel (Australia)    

Maari FPSO vessel (New Zealand)     

Helix Producer I FPU (Gulf of Mexico)    

Ettrick FPSO vessel (U.K.)    

Chestnut FPSO vessel (U.K.)    

Gjoa production semi (Norway)    

Thunder Hawk production semi (Gulf of Mexico)    

MA FPSO vessel (India)    

Shelley FPSO vessel (U.K.) 

Pilot FPSO vessel (U.K.) 

Nexus speculative FPSO vessel 

MPF 1000 FDPSO vessel (speculative) 

  

6. Systems Recently Completed       

Espadarte Sul FPSO (Brazil)    

Polvo FPSO vessel (Brazil)     

PRA-1 FSO vessel (Brazil)      

Piranema FPSO vessel (Brazil)      

Independence Gas Hub production semi (Gulf of Mexico) 

KuMaZa FPSO vessel (Mexico)

Dumbarton FPSO vessel (U.K.)

Alvheim FPSO vessel (Norway)

Volve MOPU and FSO vessel (Norway)

Abu FSO vessel (Malaysia)

Sepanjang FSO vessel (Indonesia)

Kikeh FPSO and wellhead spar (Malaysia)     

  

7. Existing Systems       

Okume/Oveng TLPs (Equatorial Guinea)    

Bonny River FPSO vessel (Nigeria)     

Chinguetti FPSO vessel (Mauritania)      

Griffin FPSO vessel (Australia)      

Wanaea/Cossack FPSO vessel (Australia)      

Woollybutt FPSO vessel (Australia)      

Roncador FPSO vessel (Brazil)      

White Rose FPSO vessel (Canada)      

Ursa TLP (Gulf of Mexico)

Front Runner production spar (Gulf of Mexico)

Innovator production semi (Gulf of Mexico) 

Didon FPSO vessel (Tunisia)

Ross/Blake FPSO vessel (U.K.)

Janice production semi (U.K.)

Balmoral production semi (U.K.)

Norne FPSO vessel (Norway)

Crystal Sea FPSO vessel (India)

Panna Mukta FSO vessel (India)

Jasmine FPSO vessel (Thailand)     

  

 

III.     UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS

 

1.          Global Oil Demand Growing 1.8 Percent in 2007     

2.          Crude Futures Prices Remain in the mid-$60s     

3.          E&P Spending Expected to Grow 13 Percent This Year    

4.          Drill Rig Demand and Utilization is Very Strong   

5.          Production Floater Orders Continue at a Record Pace          

IV.    FORECAST OF FLOATER REQUIREMENTS

 

1. Summary of the Available Five Year Market       

 

2. FPSO Vessels       

Why FPSOs?    

Five year ordering history     

Outlook for FPSO projects    

Future role of redeployments    

Composition of future FPSO orders    

Projected capex for FPSOs     

      

3. Production Semis       

Why production semis?    

Five year ordering history     

Future production semi requirements    

Potential redeployments of production semis    

Heavy vs. light deckload units    

Production semi capex projection     

  

4. Tension Leg Platforms       

Why TLPs?    

Five year ordering history     

Outlook for TLP contracts    

Composition of future orders    

Projected TLP capex    

 

5. Production Spars       

Why spars?    

Five year ordering history     

Outlook for spar contracts    

Composition of spar orders    

Projected capex for spar contracts    

  

6. Floating Storage Systems       

Five year ordering history    

Future FSO contracts     

Projected FSO capex    

 

V.     COMPANIES AND TECHNOLOGY

 

1.          Conversion Hulls Account for 67% of FPSOs Installed in 2007 or On Order     

2.          Major Field Operators Have Varying Preferences on Choice of New vs. Converted Hulls for FPSOs     

3.          VLCC-size Units Account for Almost 40% of FPSOs Since 1997 --- With Suezmax-Size the Second Leading Choice    

4.          LNG Floating Regas Projects Having Mixed Success in the U.S.   

5.          M&A and Financing Activity Among Floater Operators Continues at a Brisk Pace     

6.          Chinese Builders Gaining Increasing Presence in the Floater Fabrication Sector

7.          Joining Opec Could Slow Future Floater Projects in Angola   

8.          One Less Potential Redeployment      

                

 

List of Exhibits

1.       Floater Deliveries and Orders Since the November Report

2.       Current Order Backlog for Floating Production and Storage Systems

3.       Trend in Order Backlog for Floating Production Systems Hits Another All Time High

4.        Number and Location of Facilities Fabricating or Converting Floating Production or Storage Units

5.        Regional Distribution of Projects in the Planning and Bidding/Final Design Stage

6.        Overview of Floating Production and Storage Systems in Operation

7.        Details for Current Inventory of Floating Production Systems

8.        Details for Current Inventory of Floating Storage/Offloading Systems

9.        10 Year Overview of Floating Production and Storage Systems

10.     Details for Floating Production and Storage Systems Installed Over the Past Ten Years

11.     Overview of Where Floaters on Order Are to be Installed

12.      Details for Floating Production and Storage Systems Currently on Order

13.      Overview of Who's Building What

14.      Regional Distribution and Water Depth of Floaters Planned or Under Study

15.      Details for Floating Production Systems Being Bid, Designed, Planned or Studied

16.      Ten Year Trend in Global Oil Demand

17.      Regional Growth in Oil Consumption

18.     Actual and Futures Price of Crude

19.      Henry Hub Natural Gas Price and Nymex Futures

20.      Drill Rig Utilization

21.      Day Rates for Transocean High Specification Drill Floaters

22.      Trend in Active Offshore Drill Rigs

23.       Trend in Offshore Rig Score

24.       Deepwater Drill Rig Commitment of Major Operators Over Next Two Years

25.       Ten Year Trend in Orders for Floating Production Systems

26.       Forecast of Floating Production Unit Orders Over the Next Five Years

27.       30 Year Development of the Wordlwide FPSO Inventory

28.       Orders for FPSO Vessels Over the Past Five Years

29.        Have There Been Fundamental Changes in the Market?

30.        Forecast of FPSO Orders

31.        Reality Check on the FPSO Order Outlook

32.        30 Year Pattern of FPSO Redeployments

33.        Profile of FPSO Capex by Type Unit

34.        Composition of Future FPSO Orders

35.        Projected Capex for FPSO Vessels

36.        30 Year Development of the Worldwide Production Semi Inventory

37.        Orders for Production Semis Over the Past Five Years

38.         Forecast of Production Semi Orders

39.        Composition of Production Semi Orders

40.         Projected Capex for Production Semis

41.         30 Year Development of the Worldwide TLP Inventory

42.         Orders for TLPs Over the Past Five Years

43.          Forecast of TLP Orders

44.          Composition of Future TLP Orders

45.         Projected Capex from TLP Contracts

46.          30 Year Development of the Worldwide Production Spar Inventory

47.          Orders for Production Spars Over the Past Five Years

48.          Forecast of Spar Orders

49.          Composition of Orders for Production Spars

50.          Projected Production Spar Capex

51.          Orders for FSO Vessels Over the Past Five Years

52.          Forecast of FSO Orders

53.          Projected FSO Capex

54.          Number of FPSOs Installed Using New and Converted Hulls

55.          Trend in Percentage of Converted FPSO Hulls

56.          New and Converted Hulls Used for FPSOs Installed Since 1997

57.         Storage Capacity of FPSOs Installed Since 1997

58.          Floaters Currently On Order in Chinese Shipyards





International Maritime Associates, Inc.
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Tel: 1-202-333-8501
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Email: imaassoc@msn.com
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