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Floating Production Systems

assessment of the outlook for FPSOs,
Semis, TLPs, Spars, and FSOs


April 2009

 

Floating Production Systems
In Operation

 

 



Outline of Report

 

I.     CURRENT AND PLANNED FLOATING PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

 

1. Overview of the Floater Business Sector        

Recent Orders, Deliveries and Relocations    

What's Now Being Built         

Trend in Order Backlog          

Where Destined         

Current Fabrication and Conversion Activity         

Floaters Planned or Under Study    


2. Details for Floaters in Operation, On Order or Planned       

Inventory of Floating Production Systems     

Inventory of Floating Storage/Offloading Systems     

Production and Storage/Offloading Systems Installed Since 1996    

Floaters Now on Order     

Floating Production Projects Planned or Under Study     

  II.    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

 

1. Projects in the Planning Stage       

Block O (Equatorial Guinea)    

Aje (Nigeria)     

Tweneboa (Ghana)    

BMG (Australia)    

Cormorant (Australia)    

Sunrise (Australia)     

Azulao (Brazil)     

Panoramix (Brazil)    

BM-BAR-3 (Brazil)     

BM-S-7 (Brazil)     

El Perdido (Mexico)     

Cantarell 2 (Mexico)     

Buckskin (Gulf of Mexico)     

Bushwick (Gulf of Mexico)     

Cascade Phase 3 (Gulf of Mexico)     

Shenandoah (Gulf of Mexico)     

Kitimat FLNG (British Columbia)     

Ombrina Mare (Italy)     

Gioia Tauro (Italy)     

Rinnes (U.K.)     

Liwan (China)     

North Sumatra (Indonesia)     

Cendor (Malaysia)     

Abadi (Indonesia)     

FLNG vessel (speculative)     

 

2. Projects in the Final Design or Bidding Stage       

Crux (Australia)    

Ichthys (Australia)     

Papa Terra (Brazil)    

Jack/St.Malo (Gulf of Mexico)    

Goliat (Norway)    

Shtokman (Russia)     

Bua Ban (Thailand)     

Cuu Long Basin (Vietnam)    

    

3. New Orders       

Soroosh FSU (Iran)    

  

4. Orders Terminated or Delayed       

EOV (Gabon)    

Pinauna (Brazil)     

Roncador P 62 FPSO vessel (Brazil)    

Telemark 2 MinDOC (Gulf of Mexico)    

Malampaya (Philippines)    

 

5. Systems On Order       

PAJ FPSO (Angola)    

Cascade/Chinook FPSO (Gulf of Mexico)     

Dua/Chim Sao FPSO (Vietnam)      

LNG Producers #1-4 (Nigeria/PNG/Speculative)      

MT Arc FPSO (Speculative) 

Deep Producer 1 FPSO (Speculative)

Sevan #4 and #5 (Speculative)


6. Systems Recently Completed       

Azurite FDPSO(Congo)    

Olowi FPSO (Gabon)     

Camarupim FPSO (Brazil)      

Frade FPSO (Brazil)      

Tupi EWT FPSO (Brazil)      

Thunder Hawk production semi (Gulf of Mexico)      

Ettrick FPSO (U.K.)      

Songkhla FSO (Thailand)      

Song Doc FPSO (Vietnam)

  

7. Existing Systems       

Woollybutt FPSO (Australia)    

Montara FPSO (Australia)    

Maari FPSO (New Zealand)    

Gomez production semi (Gulf of Mexico)    

Auger TLP (Gulf of Mexico)    

Constitution spar (Gulf of Mexico)     

Al Shaheen FSO (Qatar)    

MA-D6 FPSO (India)    

Rang Dong FPSO (Vietnam)    

Galoc FPSO (Philippines)    

  

 

III.     UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS

 

1.          Global Oil Demand to Decline 2.8. Percent in 1st Qtr 2009     

2.          Demand and Supply Remain Out of Balance    

3.          Spot Crude Prices Have Fallen Due to Demand/Supply Imbalance    

4.          But the Futures Market Is Indicating $75+ Oil And $7+ Gas Five Years Out   

5.          Deepwater Drilling Activity Has Remained Strong   

6.          Drill Rig Deliveries Over The Next Three Years Will Almost Double the Deepwater Rigs in Operation   

7.          And Most Major Offshore Operators Plan to Increase or Maintain E&P Spending --- At Least So Far   

8.          Meanwhile, Production Floater Orders Have Evaporated And Some Past Contracts Have Been Cancelled   

9.          Overall the Downturn Appears Temporary and the Long Term Market Outlook Remains Very Strong   

IV.    FORECAST OF FLOATER REQUIREMENTS

 

1. Summary of the Available Five Year Market       

 

2. FPSO Vessels       

Units in Operation    

Pros and Cons     

Order History     

Future FPSO Projects    

Outlook for FPSO Orders    

Projected Capex for FPSO Orders     

      

3. Production Semis       

Units in Operation    

Why Production Semis?     

Order History     

Outlook for Production Semi Orders    

Projected capex for Production Semi Orders       

  

4. Tension Leg Platforms       

Units in Operation    

Pros and Cons     

Recent TLP Ordering Pace     

Outlook for Orders    

Projected Capex for TLP Orders    

 

5. Production Spars       

Units in Operation    

Pros and Cons     

Recent Spar Ordering Pace     

Outlook for Orders    

Projected Capex for Spar Orders    

  

6. Floating Storage Systems       

Units in Operation    

Recent FSO Ordering Pace   

Outlook for Orders    

Projected Capex for FSO Orders    

 

V.     COMPANIES AND TECHNOLOGY

 

1.          Profile of Production Floaters by Water Depth     

2.          Petrobras Five Year Plan Includes $28 Billion for Pre-Salt Development     

3.          Serial Hull Construction in Brazil Will Impact FPSO Redeployment and Hull Conversion Opportunities    

4.          Recent GOM Lease Sale Drew Little Interest, But Deepwater Bidding Remained Relatively Strong   

5.          Falling Scrap Values Have Impacted FPSO/FSO Operators     

6.          Gasol/Teekay Have Developed New Concept for Floating Liquefaction

 

 




List of Exhibits

1.          Floater Deliveries and Orders Since the December Report

2.          Current Order Backlog for Floating Production and Storage Systems

3.          Order Backlog for Floating Production Systems Has Been Declining

4.          Number and Location of Facilities Fabricating or Converting Floating Production or Storage Units

5.           Regional Distribution of Projects in the Planning and Bidding/Final Design Stage

6.           Overview of Floating Production and Storage Systems in Operation

7.           Details for Current Inventory of Floating Production Systems

8.            Details for Current Inventory of Floating Storage/Offloading Systems

9.            Overview of Floating Production and Storage/Offloading Systems Since 1996

10.        Details for Floating Production and Storage/Offloading Systems Installed Since 1996

11.         Overview of Where Floaters on Order Are to be Installed

12.         Details for Floating Production and Storage Systems Currently on Order

13.         Overview of Who's Building What

14.         Regional Distribution and Water Depth of Floaters Planned or Under Study

15.         Details for Floating Production Systems Being Bid, Designed, Planned or Studied

16.         Annual Growth in Oil Demand

17.         Percentage Growth in World GDP

18.         OPEC Crude Production

19.         Non-OPEC Crude Supply

20.         Spot Price of Crude Oil

21.         Actual and Futures Price of Crude

22.         Henry Hub Natural Gas Price and Nymex Futures

23.         Utilization and Quarterly Fixtures of Transocean High Spec Deepwater Drill Rigs

24.         Scheduled Deliveries of Deepwater Drill Rigs Through 2012

25.         Long Term Trend in Orders for Floating Production Systems

26.         Forecast of Floating Production/Storage Unit Orders Over the Next Five Years

27.         Development of the Global FPSO Inventory Over the Past 30+ Years

28.         Orders for FPSOs Over the Past Five Years

29.        Sensitivity of FPSO Projects in the Planning Pipeline to Short Term Market Conditions

30.         Forecast of FPSO Orders Over the Next Five Years

31.         Length of Time Existing FPSOs Have Been on Their Current Field

32.         Projected Capex for FPSO Vessels Over the Next Five Years

33.         Development of the Global Production Semi Inventory Over the Past 30+ Years

34.        Orders for Production Semis Over the Past Five Years

35.         Forecast of Production Semi Orders Over the Next Five Years

36.         Projected Capex for Production Semis Over the Next Five Years

37.        Development of the Global TLP Inventory Over the Past 30+ Years

38.         Orders for TLPs Over the Past Five Years

39.         Forecast of TLP Orders Over the Next Five Years

40.         Projected Capex for TLPs Over the Next Five Years

41.         Development of the Global Production Spar Inventory Over the Past 30+ Years

42.         Orders for Production Spars Over the Past Five Years

43.         Forecast of Spar Orders Over the Next Five Years

44.         Projected Production Spar Capex Over the Next Five Years

45.         Orders for FSOs Over the Past Five Years

46.          Forecast of FSO Orders Over the Next Five Years

47.          Projected FSO Capex Over the Next Five Years

48.          Water Depth of Floating Production Systems Operating or On Order

49.           Petrobras Pre-Salt Development Strategy

50.           Petrobras Serial Hull Construction Schedule

51.           Blocks Drawing Greatest Interest in Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 2009 Lease Sale

 




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